What is this?

Polymarket has betting markets on "How many tweets will Elon Musk post this week?" with ranges like 260-279, 280-299, etc.

MuskPredict analyzes Musk's historical tweeting patterns to predict which range is most likely. If our prediction differs from the market price, there's a potential profit opportunity.

How does the model work?

We use Bayesian statistics with a Gamma-Poisson model:

• Learns from 120+ past completed windows
• Adjusts for time-of-day patterns (Musk tweets more at night)
• Detects "burst" periods of high activity
• Accounts for sleep/quiet periods
• Self-calibrates by comparing predictions to actual results
• Uses AI to analyze news for tweet activity impact

What does EV mean?

Expected Value = how profitable a bet is on average.

Example: If our model says 60% chance for bucket "260-279" but the market sells YES for 40 cents:

EV = 60% - 40% = +20%

Positive EV means the bet is profitable long-term. We show the highest EV opportunity.

How to use this

• 1. Select a tracking window from the dropdown
• 2. Or set a custom time window with the date pickers
• 3. Look at the recommendation at the bottom
• 4. If EV is positive (green), consider that trade on Polymarket
• 5. Page auto-updates every 2 minutes with latest data

This is NOT financial advice. Predictions can be wrong. Only bet what you can afford to lose.